Financial
Scenario and Runway Analysis
Model financial futures using live revenue and expense data — compare growth, headcount, and burn scenarios side by side.
What is Scenario and Runway Analysis?
Scenario and Runway Analysis is a financial modeling tool that shows you where you are today and where you could be tomorrow. It pulls live revenue and expense data from your connected accounts so the baseline reflects your actual numbers — not a stale spreadsheet — then lets you compare multiple futures side by side: what happens if you double hiring, raise prices, delay a raise, or grow revenue 20% slower than plan. Each scenario shows runway, burn rate, and break-even under its specific conditions. Built for operator founders making real decisions — hiring, pricing, fundraising timing — who need to know their current runway at a glance and see the financial consequences of each option before committing.
Key Features
Who it's for
- Seed and Series A founders who need their runway at a glance, not after a month-end close
- Founders weighing hiring decisions against remaining runway
- Operator founders preparing for a raise who need current burn numbers plus side-by-side scenarios for investors
- Small teams modeling the impact of a pricing change before shipping it
- Founders running multiple entities or product lines who want consolidated cash visibility plus per-line scenarios
Example workflows
Check your current runway and burn
- 1Open Scenario and Runway Analysis to see months of runway, net burn, and cash position at the top of the dashboard.
- 2Scan the 6-month trend chart to see whether burn is improving or worsening.
- 3Drill into expense categories driving the biggest changes — flag anything that needs a closer look.
- 4Bookmark the view or ask Starch to include the runway metrics in your weekly digest.
Model the runway impact of a new hiring round
- 1Open a new scenario and duplicate your base case.
- 2Add the new hires with salary, start date, and benefits/taxes.
- 3Set a revenue assumption (optimistic, base, conservative) for how fast you expect to grow.
- 4Compare the scenarios side-by-side: runway, burn, break-even under each.
- 5Pick the scenario you're comfortable presenting to the team or investors.
Test a pricing change before committing
- 1Duplicate your base case as 'Pricing +20%'.
- 2Adjust the pricing assumption: higher ARPU and a realistic churn impact.
- 3Compare net revenue impact over 12 months against the base case.
- 4Decide based on the trade-off (higher ARPU vs. churn risk), not a gut feel.
What you can ask
"What is my current burn rate and runway?"
"What if we raise subscription price to $149?"
"What if we double engineering hiring next quarter?"
"Compare base case vs growth scenario"
"How many customers do we need to break even?"
"When will I run out of cash at the current burn rate?"
Frequently asked questions
How is this different from a spreadsheet model?
Speed and live data. A spreadsheet model takes hours to build, starts going stale the day you finish it, and depends on you remembering to update the actuals. Scenario and Runway Analysis uses live revenue and expense feeds as the baseline, so the starting point is always current. You only edit the assumptions you want to test, not the entire model.
How accurate is the current runway number?
The live actuals are exact — Starch reads what's actually moved through your connected revenue and bank accounts. That's why the runway number is accurate even before your bookkeeper closes the month. By default, net burn uses a trailing 30-day window so a single large bill doesn't skew the picture; you can change the window (14, 60, or 90 days) depending on how much smoothing you want.
How accurate are the forward projections?
Only as accurate as your assumptions. The live actuals are exact; the forward-looking numbers depend on the inputs you set. Each scenario shows the math behind it clearly — it's a calculator for your assumptions, not a predictor. Garbage in, garbage out applies.
Can I compare more than two scenarios at once?
Yes, typically up to 5 side-by-side. That's usually enough to compare base case, upside, downside, and a couple of specific decisions (new hire, pricing change). Beyond 5, the comparison view gets too dense to be useful.
Does it factor in revenue growth, or just expense changes?
Both. You can model revenue curves (growth rate, churn, ARPU), expense changes (new hires, ad spend shifts, one-time costs), or any combination in each scenario. The base case inherits your actual revenue trajectory; scenarios adjust from there.
What if I have multiple bank accounts?
Connect them all. Starch aggregates across accounts and entities — operating, savings, payroll, FBO — into a single cash position and a single burn number. You can see the breakdown by account when you need to, or just the consolidated total.
Can I export scenarios to share with investors or a board?
Yes. You can export any scenario as a PDF with charts and assumptions, or pull it directly into Investor Reporting if you're already using that app. The exported version includes the assumption summary so your investors can see exactly what you modeled.
Get started with Scenario and Runway Analysis
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