How to build a 13-week cash flow forecast on Starch
A 13-week cash flow forecast is a rolling, week-by-week view of what hits your account and what leaves it — covering roughly one quarter ahead. It's different from your P&L (which is accrual-based and backward-looking) and different from a runway calculation (which averages your burn rate). A 13-week forecast tracks timing: when does the customer invoice actually clear, when does payroll hit, when does the rent ACH go out. That timing gap is where operators get into trouble.
What this looks like in practice varies. A SaaS company cares about Stripe payouts landing before payroll. A services firm cares about client payment cycles and contractor disbursements. A product business cares about inventory outlays and when wholesale receivables clear. The mechanics differ, but the need is identical: know what your account balance will actually look like, week by week, before it happens instead of after.
On Starch, your real bank balance and Stripe revenue are always in the forecast — no manual exports, no waiting for your bookkeeper. You end up with a weekly cash dashboard that updates automatically, shows each major outflow category as its own row, and flags the weeks where the balance gets tight. If you want a Slack message every Monday with the week's opening balance and any red-flag weeks ahead, that's there too. The forecast you have on Tuesday morning reflects what actually happened on Monday, not what you last entered into a spreadsheet two weeks ago.
Why it matters
Cash surprises kill otherwise healthy businesses. A company can show profit on paper and still miss payroll because receivables cleared two weeks late. Getting the 13-week forecast right means you see a thin week coming with enough lead time to draw on a credit line, accelerate collections, or delay a discretionary purchase. Getting it wrong means you're reacting — moving money in a hurry, making bad vendor decisions under pressure, or discovering a shortfall the week it's already a problem.
Common pitfalls
The most common mistakes: using your accounting software's cash balance instead of your actual bank balance, so you're forecasting from a number that's already days stale. Conflating accrual revenue with cash received — a signed contract is not a deposit. Building the forecast once after a board meeting and not updating it when a big customer pays late or an unexpected vendor charge hits. And using monthly buckets when the critical events — payroll, rent, a large supplier payment — all fall in specific weeks that a monthly view completely obscures.
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